The future of immersive sims lies in budgets of $3–10 million and the work of compact teams. Industry veteran Randy Smith believes that attempts to compete with $250 million blockbusters are ruining the niche genre.
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Who is Randy Smith and why is his opinion so influential?
When we discuss the philosophy of systems game design, Randy Smith’s name is one of the first to come up. He worked at the iconic studios Looking Glass and Ion Storm, having contributed to the creation of Thief: The Dark Project and System Shock 2. He later led the development of Thief: Deadly Shadows, and in recent years has been exploring the indie development segment through his own studio, Tiger Style.
Smith is a true architect of the rules by which interactive sandbox games still operate. And when a specialist of his caliber assesses the state of the industry, his conclusions are worth listening to.
AAA Immersive Sim Failures: Dishonored 2, Prey, Redfall
Let’s face it. Dishonored 2 and Prey received rave reviews from critics, but their commercial results fell far short of Bethesda’s expectations. The formula for deep interaction with the world ran up against harsh financial realities.
The closure of Arkane Austin in May 2024 after the failure of Redfall merely put an end to the attempts to squeeze systemic gameplay into a gigantic blockbuster format. As reporter Jason Schreier noted, the developers at Austin were literally hoping for Redfall’s cancellation, and Arkane founder Raphaël Colantonio downright called the company’s decision foolish. Meanwhile, the Arkane Lyon team is still afloat. They are largely protected by local labor laws in France, not by the financial success of their recent releases.
The Economics of the Genre: Why $3–10 Million Is Reasonable
The original Thief cost $3 million in 1998. Adjusted for inflation, that’s around $6 million today—a reasonable price for a quality project. A modern blockbuster with a $250 million budget requires 5–6 million people to buy it just to break even. For a deep game with a high barrier to entry, such an audience is unachievable.
A small budget is a game-changer. Having sold 150,000 copies of a compact $30 title, the studio is already breaking even and preparing for a sequel.
History of the Genre: From System Shock to the Present Day
Immersive sims have always demanded maximum player attention. In the era of System Shock and Deus Ex, no one was trying to make a game for everyone. Projects were built on experimentation, complex physics, and environmental reactions to player actions.
Attempts to adapt this idea to the needs of a wider audience in the mid-2010s failed. Mass consumers don’t want to calculate trajectories and search for three alternative ventilation openings—they want a straightforward action game. That’s why the genre naturally returned to where it began: a niche segment that values depth over a pretty wrapper.
Why Triple-A Studios Avoid Intimate Worlds
Large publishers are chasing scale because they need to sell subscriptions and microtransactions. An intimate world built with an emphasis on systemic physics doesn’t sell well in short promotional trailers.
Even successful examples like Rocksteady’s Batman: Arkham series are a compromise. The developers took individual elements of immersion and wrapped them in a comprehensible, cinematic action game. A full-fledged immersive sim within the confines of a AAA production has become too risky a financial risk these days.
Gameplay vs. Graphics: How Low-Budget Sims Win with Design
While industry giants are losing hundreds of millions, indie developers are doing just fine. Take Gloomwood or Ctrl Alt Ego.
These projects don’t boast stunning graphics, but they offer deep gameplay. Simple graphics reduce development costs significantly, freeing up resources for artificial intelligence and physics. Ultimately, the player gets exactly what they came for—freedom of action in a flexible world.
A Practical Checklist: How to Create a Successful Immersive Sim for $3–10 Million
If a studio plans to release a viable project in the current climate, the expert formula looks like this:
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Focus on the Core: Limit the target audience to 1–2 million people and avoid trying to please everyone.
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Ready-Made Tools: Forgo developing your own engine in favor of Unity or Unreal Engine to cut costs.
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Systematics Over Graphics: Invest in world interactivity and environmental responsiveness, rather than expensive facial animation.
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Early Testing: Engage hardcore genre fans during the alpha testing phase to polish mechanics.
Conclusion: Modesty as the New Freedom
Randy Smith is absolutely right: abandoning the race for gigantic budgets is not a defeat, but the genre’s only salvation. A small budget gives developers the creative freedom that corporate marketers have long since taken away. And if immersive sims stay within the $3–10 million range, we’ll get dozens of excellent games instead of shuttered studios and high-profile failures.
